Revisting the 4% Rule

Saving for retirement is not easy, but using your retirement savings wisely can be just as challenging. How much of your savings can you withdraw each year? Withdraw too much and you run the risk of running out of money. Withdraw too little and you may miss out on a more comfortable retirement lifestyle.

For more than 25 years, the most common guideline has been the "4% rule," which suggests that a withdrawal equal to 4% of the initial portfolio value, with annual increases for inflation, is sustainable over a 30-year retirement. This guideline can be helpful in projecting a savings goal and providing a realistic picture of the annual income your savings might provide. For example, a $1 million portfolio could provide $40,000 of income in the first year with inflation-adjusted withdrawals in succeeding years.

The 4% rule has stimulated a great deal of discussion over the years, with some experts saying 4% is too low and others saying it's too high. The most recent analysis comes from the man who invented it, financial professional William Bengen, who believes the rule has been misunderstood and offers new insights based on new research.

Original research

Bengen first published his findings in 1994, based on analyzing data for retirements beginning in 51 different years, from 1926 to 1976. He considered a hypothetical, conservative portfolio comprising 50%large-cap stocks and 50% intermediate-term Treasury bonds held in a tax-advantaged account and rebalanced annually. A 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal was the highest sustainable rate in the worst-case scenario — retirement in October 1968, the beginning of a bear market and a long period of high inflation. All other retirement years had higher sustainable rates, some as high as 10% or more.1

Of course, no one can predict the future, which is why Bengen suggested the worst-case scenario as a sustainable rate. He later adjusted it slightly upward to 4.5%, based on a more diverse portfolio comprising 30% large-cap stocks, 20% small-cap stocks, and 50% intermediate-term Treasuries.2

New research

In October 2020, Bengen published new research that attempts to project a sustainable withdrawal rate based on two key factors at the time of retirement: stock market valuation and inflation (annual change in the Consumer Price Index). In theory, when the market is expensive, it has less potential to grow, and sustaining increased withdrawals over time may be more difficult. On the other hand, lower inflation means lower inflation-adjusted withdrawals, allowing a higher initial rate. For example, a $40,000 first-year withdrawal becomes an $84,000 withdrawal after 20 years with a 4% annual inflation increase but just $58,000 with a 2% increase.

To measure market valuation, Bengen used the Shiller CAPE, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index developed by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller. The price-earnings (P/E) ratio of a stock is the share price divided by its earnings per share for the previous 12 months. For example, if a stock is priced at $100 and the earnings per share is $4, the P/E ratio would be 25. The Shiller CAPE divides the total share price of stocks in the S&P 500 index by average inflation-adjusted earnings over 10 years.

5% rule?

Again using historical data — for retirement dates from 1926 to 1990 — Bengen found a clear correlation between market valuation and inflation at the time of retirement and the maximum sustainable withdrawal rate. Historically, rates ranged from as low as 4.5% to as high as 13%, but the scenarios that supported high rates were unusual, with very low market valuations and/or deflation rather than inflation.3

For most of the last 25 years, the United States has experienced high market valuations, and inflation has been low since the Great Recession.4-5 In a high-valuation, low-inflation scenario at the time of retirement, Bengen found that a 5% initial withdrawal rate was sustainable over 30 years.6 While not a big difference from the 4% rule, this suggests retirees could make larger initial withdrawals, particularly in a low-inflation environment.

One caveat is that current market valuation is extremely high: The S&P 500 index had a CAPE of 34.19 at the end of 2020, a level only reached (and exceeded) during the late-1990s dot-com boom and higher than any of the scenarios in Bengen's research.7 His range for a 5% withdrawal rate is a CAPE of 23 or higher, with inflation between 0% and 2.5%.8 (Inflation was 1.2% in November 2020.)9 Bengen's research suggests that if market valuation drops near the historical mean of 16.77, a withdrawal rate of 6% might be sustainable as long as inflation is 5% or lower. On the other hand, if valuation remains high and inflation surpasses 2.5%, the maximum sustainable rate might be 4.5%.10

It's important to keep in mind that these projections are based on historical scenarios and a hypothetical portfolio, and there is no guarantee that your portfolio will perform in a similar manner. Also remember that these calculations are based on annual inflation-adjusted withdrawals, and you might choose not to increase withdrawals in some years or use other criteria to make adjustments, such as market performance.

Although there is no assurance that working with a financial professional will improve investment results, a professional can evaluate your objectives and available resources and help you consider appropriate long-term financial strategies, including your withdrawal strategy.

All investments are subject to market fluctuation, risk, and loss of principal. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. The principal value of Treasury securities fluctuates with market conditions. If not held to maturity, they could be worth more or less than the original amount paid. Asset allocation and diversification are methods used to help manage investment risk; they do not guarantee a profit or protect against investment loss. Rebalancing involves selling some investments in order to buy others; selling investments in a taxable account could result in a tax liability.

The S&P 500 index is an unmanaged group of securities considered representative of the U.S. stock market in general. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary.

1-2) Forbes Advisor, October 12, 2020

3-4, 6, 8, 10) Financial Advisor, October 2020

5, 9) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2020

7) multpl.com, December 31, 2020

I’m Moving, should I sell or rent my current home?

If you are moving and trying to decide whether to rent out or sell your present home, consider two important factors: 

• How your choice will affect your cash position

• How willing and able you are to manage a rental property

Are you buying another home? If so, you may need the proceeds from the sale of your present home to fund the purchase of your new one. If you anticipate that the sale might result in a loss, consider whether it would be better to rent out your present home, at least until the real estate market turns around. You may need to accept the loss to currently realize the cash that a sale now would bring. If the sale results in a capital gain, consider whether you will be able to exclude that gain from federal income taxation. (If you meet all of the requirements, you may exclude up to $250,000; up to $500,000 if you're married and file a joint return.) If you aren't able to exclude all or part of the capital gain, you may need to reserve a portion of the proceeds from the sale to cover the taxes due. Or you may need to defer the sale and rent out your home in the interim. 

If you decide to rent out your present home, will your rental income cover the ongoing expenses associated with the property? Will it cover mortgage payments, property taxes, and insurance? If not, determine whether you can afford to cover the difference on an ongoing basis. Will the tenants be responsible for all utilities, or will you have to cover some of these expenses? Consider what your anticipated annual maintenance expenses on the property might be. Most importantly, if the property were vacant even for a brief period, think about whether you could cover these expenses without a steady stream of rental income. 

If you decide to rent out your present home, you'll be a landlord. You'll have to decide whether to manage the property yourself or hire a local property management service. The decision may hinge on whether you are moving a few miles away or a few states away. Familiarize yourself with the various laws that govern landlord/tenant relations. You'll have to meet health and safety code requirements and perform maintenance and repairs on the property yourself, or hire others for these tasks. 

Renting out your home can also have tax implications. For instance, if you rent your home temporarily, you may still qualify for the capital gain exclusion when you later sell your home, but that's not the case if your property is considered permanent rental property. Assuming you rent your home on a temporary basis for more than 15 days during the tax year, you'll have to declare the rent you collect as income. However, you can offset rental income with allowable interest and property tax deductions. To the extent that the rental income exceeds these otherwise allowable deductions, you can also claim rental deductions for maintenance, insurance, and depreciation. These expenses, though, are limited to the amount of rental income. Depreciation deductions, it should be noted, may impact the amount of capital gain that you can exclude from federal income taxation when you sell the property.

If you permanently convert your home to rental property, the tax treatment may be different. Before you make the decision to rent out your home, you may want to consult an accountant or other tax professional. If you have friends or colleagues who have rented out their homes, you might also ask them about their experiences as landlords. Lastly, be sure to consult your realtor, if you work with one, they are always a wealth of knowledge on this topic.

2020 Year-End Tax Tips

Here are some things to consider as you weigh potential tax moves between now and the end of the year.

1. Defer income to next year

Consider opportunities to defer income to 2021, particularly if you think you may be in a lower tax bracket then. For example, you may be able to defer a year-end bonus or delay the collection of business debts, rents, and payments for services. Doing so may enable you to postpone payment of tax on the income until next year.

2. Accelerate deductions

You might also look for opportunities to accelerate deductions into the current tax year. If you itemize deductions, making payments for deductible expenses such as medical expenses, qualifying interest, and state taxes before the end of the year (instead of paying them in early 2021) could make a difference on your 2020 return.

3. Make deductible charitable contributions

If you itemize deductions on your federal income tax return, you can generally deduct charitable contributions, but the deduction is limited to 60%, 30%, or 20% of your adjusted gross income (AGI), depending on the type of property you give and the type of organization to which you contribute. (Excess amounts can be carried over for up to five years.) For 2020 charitable gifts, the normal rules have been enhanced: The limit is increased to 100% of AGI for direct cash gifts to public charities. And even if you don't itemize deductions, you can receive a $300 charitable deduction for direct cash gifts to public charities (in addition to the standard deduction).

4. Bump up withholding to cover a tax shortfall

If it looks as though you will owe federal income tax for the year, consider increasing your withholding on Form W-4 for the remainder of the year to cover the shortfall. There may not be much time for employees to request a Form W-4 change and for their employers to implement it in time for 2020. The biggest advantage in doing so is that withholding is considered as having been paid evenly throughout the year instead of when the dollars are actually taken from your paycheck. This strategy can be used to make up for low or missing quarterly estimated tax payments.

5. Maximize retirement savings

Deductible contributions to a traditional IRA and pre-tax contributions to an employer-sponsored retirement plan such as a 401(k) can reduce your 2020 taxable income. If you haven't already contributed up to the maximum amount allowed, consider doing so. For 2020, you can contribute up to $19,500 to a 401(k) plan ($26,000 if you're age 50 or older) and up to $6,000 to traditional and Roth IRAs combined ($7,000 if you're age 50 or older).* The window to make 2020 contributions to an employer plan generally closes at the end of the year, while you have until April 15, 2021, to make 2020 IRA contributions. *Roth contributions are not deductible, but Roth qualified distributions are not taxable.

6. Avoid RMDs in 2020

Normally, once you reach age 70½ (age 72 if you reach age 70½ after 2019), you generally must start taking required minimum distributions (RMDs) from traditional IRAs and employer-sponsored retirement plans. Beneficiaries of retirement plans are also generally required to take distributions after the death of the IRA owner or plan participant. However, recent legislation waived RMDs from IRAs and most employer retirement plans for 2020 and you don't have to take such distributions. If you have already taken a distribution for 2020 that is not required, you may be able to roll it over to an eligible retirement plan. The IRS provided a safe-harbor date (August 31, 2020) to roll over a distribution that was not required because RMDs were suspended for 2020 and that date has passed. There are other provisions that could allow for a rollover. For example, amounts that are distributed can generally be rolled over as long as the rollover is completed within 60 days. So, for example, if an amount is distributed on November 1, 2020, it may be possible to roll it over during 2020. Also, for someone who takes a coronavirus-related distribution in 2020, it may be possible to roll it over to an eligible retirement plan within three years of the day after the distribution was received.

7. Weigh year-end investment moves

You shouldn't let tax considerations drive your investment decisions. However, it's worth considering the tax implications of any year-end investment moves that you make. For example, if you have realized net capital gains from selling securities at a profit, you might avoid being taxed on some or all of those gains by selling losing positions. Any losses over and above the amount of your gains can be used to offset up to $3,000 of ordinary income ($1,500 if your filing status is married filing separately) or carried forward to reduce your taxes in future years.

How can my charitable gift benefit me and the charity?

Giving basics

You're free to give almost any type of property to whatever organization you choose. But in order to obtain the tax benefits associated with charitable giving, contributions need to be made to qualifying tax-exempt organizations that have been organized in the United States and meet certain criteria. In addition to common charitable organizations that operate exclusively for religious, charitable, scientific, or educational purposes, you may give to veterans' posts, certain fraternal orders, volunteer fire departments, and civil defense organizations but not politically active groups.

The income tax deduction for your charitable gift will be determined in part by the type of property you give and the type of charity receiving it.

With an outright gift, you might receive an immediate income tax deduction that could equal the value of your gift, up to certain limits. You can carry forward any gift amount that exceeds these limits for up to five years. Noncash gifts are more restrictive.

In addition to outright gifts, planned giving offers a way to make larger gifts than you might otherwise be able to do. For example, by donating highly appreciated assets (such as stocks) during your lifetime, you may be able to help reduce or avoid paying capital gains taxes, thus potentially enhancing the value of your gift to the charitable organization and increasing your tax savings.

More gifting strategies

A gift of life insurance enables you to donate more than you might currently have available and results in a larger future gift to the charitable organization. If the charity is named as owner and beneficiary of the policy, you can receive an income tax deduction for the premiums you pay, within certain limits.

With a charitable lead trust, you place money or income-producing assets in the trust. The charitable organization receives regular payments from the trust for the duration of the trust. At the end of the trust period, the remaining assets are paid to you or to your heirs. This can help reduce, or in some cases even eliminate, estate taxes on appreciated assets that are eventually transferred to your heirs.

Using a charitable remainder trust, you donate property to the trust. You receive regular payments from the trust for a specific number of years or your lifetime. You are generally taxed on distributions to you from the trust. At the end of the trust period, the remaining assets are paid to the charitable organization. You may also qualify for a current income tax deduction on the estimated present value of the remainder interest that will eventually go to charity. And even though you cannot take your gift back once it's in the trust, you can change the charity that will eventually receive your gift.

Giving strategically can benefit both you and the charitable organization you choose, and could potentially benefit your heirs. A properly planned gift might enable you to realign your investment portfolio, help diversify your holdings, increase your cash flow —and help leave a greater legacy.

Whatever gifting strategy you choose, planned giving can be very rewarding. It's wonderful to see your gift at work and to receive tax benefits as well.

While trusts offer numerous advantages, they are more complex in nature. You should consult an experienced estate planning professional and your legal and tax advisors before implementing such strategies.

IRA and Retirement Plan Limits for 2021

Many IRA and retirement plan limits are indexed for inflation each year. While some of the limits remain unchanged for 2021, other key numbers have increased.

IRA contribution limits

The maximum amount you can contribute to a traditional IRA or a Roth IRA in 2021 is $6,000 (or 100% of your earned income, if less), unchanged from 2020. The maximum catch-up contribution for those age 50 or older remains $1,000. You can contribute to both a traditional IRA and a Roth IRA in 2021, but your total contributions cannot exceed these annual limits.

Income limits for deducting traditional IRA contributions

If you (or if you're married, both you and your spouse) are not covered by an employer retirement plan, your contributions to a traditional IRA are generally fully tax deductible. If you're married, filing jointly, and you're not covered by an employer plan but your spouse is, your deduction is limited if your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) is between $198,000 and $208,000 (up from $196,000 and $206,000 in 2020), and eliminated if your MAGI is $208,000 or more (up from $206,000 in 2020).

For those who are covered by an employer plan, deductibility depends on your income and filing status.

Your IRA deduction is limited if your MAGI is between the below numbers and eliminated if your MAGI higher:

Single or head of household $66,000 and $76,000

Married filing jointly or qualifying widow(er) $105,000 and $125,000 (combined)

Married filing separately $0 and $10,000

If your filing status is single or head of household, you can fully deduct your IRA contribution up to $6,000 ($7,000 if you are age 50 or older) in 2021 if your MAGI is $66,000 or less (up from $65,000 in 2020). If you're married and filing a joint return, you can fully deduct up to $6,000 ($7,000 if you are age 50 or older) if your MAGI is $105,000 or less (up from $104,000 in 2020).

Income limits for contributing to a Roth IRA

The income limits for determining how much you can contribute to a Roth IRA have also increased

Your Roth IRA contribution is limited if your MAGI is between the below numbers and eliminated if your MAGI higher:

Single or head of household More than $125,000 but less than $140,000

Married filing jointly or qualifying widow(er) More than $198,000 but less than $208,000 (combined)

Married filing separately More than $0 but less than $10,000

If your filing status is single or head of household, you can contribute the full $6,000 ($7,000 if you are age 50 or older) to a Roth IRA if your MAGI is $125,000 or less (up from $124,000 in 2020). And if you're married and filing a joint return, you can make a full contribution if your MAGI is $198,000 or less (up from $196,000 in 2020). Again, contributions can't exceed 100% of your earned income.

Employer retirement plan limits

Most of the significant employer retirement plan limits for 2021 remain unchanged from 2020. The maximum amount you can contribute (your "elective deferrals") to a 401(k) plan remains $19,500 in 2021. This limit also applies to 403(b) and 457(b) plans, as well as the Federal Thrift Plan. If you're age 50 or older, you can also make catch-up contributions of up to $6,500 to these plans in 2021. [Special catch-up limits apply to certain participants in 403(b) and 457(b) plans.] The amount you can contribute to a SIMPLE IRA or SIMPLE 401(k) remains $13,500 in 2021, and the catch-up limit for those age 50 or older remains $3,000.

Note: Contributions can't exceed 100% of your income.

If you participate in more than one retirement plan, your total elective deferrals can't exceed the annual limit ($19,500 in 2021 plus any applicable catch-up contributions). Deferrals to 401(k) plans, 403(b) plans, and SIMPLE plans are included in this aggregate limit, but deferrals to Section 457(b) plans are not. For example, if you participate in both a 403(b) plan and a 457(b) plan, you can defer the full dollar limit to each plan — a total of $39,000 in 2021 (plus any catch-up contributions). The maximum amount that can be allocated to your account in a defined contribution plan [for example, a 401(k) plan or profit-sharing plan] in 2021 is $58,000 (up from $57,000 in 2020) plus age 50 or older catch-up contributions. This includes both your contributions and your employer's contributions. Special rules apply if your employer sponsors more than one retirement plan. Finally, the maximum amount of compensation that can be taken into account in determining benefits for most plans in 2021 is $290,000 (up from $285,000 in 2020), and the dollar threshold for determining highly compensated employees (when 2021 is the look-back year) remains $130,000 (unchanged from 2020).